Rating Inflation and Deflation
Why average ratings change over time and what it means for your number.
Published 2026-02-01 | Last verified 2026-02-12
Professor Archer says: Rating inflation is a heated debate in the chess world. Is a 2700 today the same as a 2700 in 1990? Probably not in absolute terms. But comparing across eras is like comparing currencies - the exchange rate keeps changing.
What Is Rating Inflation?
Rating inflation occurs when the average rating in a system increases over time without a corresponding increase in playing strength. This means a 1500 today might represent a different level of skill than a 1500 twenty years ago.
Inflation happens when new players enter the system at a rating that is too high, when inactive players retain points they can no longer compete for, or when the K-factor is too generous with point distribution.
What Is Rating Deflation?
Rating deflation is the opposite: the average rating decreases over time. This can happen when strong players leave the system (taking their points with them) or when the K-factor is too restrictive.
FIDE has experienced periods of both inflation and deflation. Changes to the K-factor rules, the introduction of new players from underrepresented regions, and shifts in the number of rated events all affect the overall rating pool.
Some argue that FIDE ratings have experienced mild inflation at the top level, with the very best players achieving higher numbers than their predecessors. Others argue that modern players are genuinely stronger due to computer-assisted training.
Why It Matters (and Why It Does Not)
Rating inflation matters for historical comparisons. Was Bobby Fischer at his peak stronger than Magnus Carlsen at his? The rating numbers alone cannot answer this because the scales have shifted.
For your personal improvement, inflation and deflation are mostly irrelevant. Your rating is a tool for measuring your progress against the current pool of active players. Whether the average has drifted up or down by 50 points does not change the fact that gaining 200 points means you have genuinely improved.
The best approach is to focus on your rate of improvement, the quality of your games, and how you perform against opponents you used to struggle against. Those are the true measures of growth.
Inflation and Deflation FAQ
Are online ratings more inflated than FIDE ratings?
Generally yes. Online platforms have larger, more casual player pools and higher starting ratings, which tends to produce higher numbers across the board. This is why online ratings should not be directly compared to FIDE ratings.
Can FIDE fix rating inflation?
FIDE periodically adjusts K-factors and rating floor policies to manage inflation. However, completely eliminating it is difficult because the player pool is constantly changing as new players enter and old players retire.
Professor Archer says: Focus on your improvement relative to your peers, not on whether the numbers are inflated or deflated. If you are climbing the rankings within your pool of active opponents, you are genuinely improving. That is what matters.
Quick Quiz
What is the primary cause of rating inflation in a chess rating system?
- Players getting better at chess - If players are genuinely getting stronger, that is real improvement, not inflation. Inflation means the numbers rise without corresponding skill improvement.
- New players entering the system at ratings higher than their actual strength (Correct) - Correct. When new players are assigned starting ratings above their true level, they donate excess points to the pool, gradually inflating the average.
- Players using computers to cheat - Cheating is a separate issue. Rating inflation is a systemic property of the rating system itself, not a result of individual cheating.
- Tournaments having too many rounds - The number of rounds in a tournament does not cause inflation. The K-factor and starting rating parameters are the main drivers.